Mark Curtis Media

(Providence, Rhode Island) – After having been in Iowa and New Hampshire, it seems like a big letdown for me not to be in South Carolina this weekend. However, I have been watching all the primary coverage on television and following along on the Internet. Here are some thoughts:

“The Newt-ron Bomb!” – I have said it before; but, in the political world, Newt is the proverbial cat with nine lives. Most people quit politics after they lose once, but this guy is like the boxer who gets up swinging after being knocked out. I thought Richard Nixon had cornered the market on political resurrection, but Gingrich may be the all-time champ in that regard. He was twice defeated before winning a seat in Congress, then was chased out by his own party after being Speaker for four years. He’s still standing.

“Senator, I Knew Jack Kennedy!” – We all remember that famous thrashing of Senator Dan Quayle by Senator Lloyd Bentsen during the 1988 Vice-presidential debate. The truth is, that was a very well-rehearsed line, practiced for an anticipated remark. The same goes for Newt Gingrich’s pummeling of CNN’s John King when King asked about Gingrich’s extramarital affairs. Newt knew the question was coming – though I think he was genuinely surprised it came first – and his hitting John King like a piñata was planned, rehearsed and calculated. There was nothing spontaneous about it, though all good political theatre looks spontaneous!

“Abysmal Polling” – On the heels of the New Hampshire primary, most polls in South Carolina had Romney ahead by double digits, with Gingrich narrowing the gap in the waning days. The fact that Gingrich won by 12 points is stunning. Most of the time, the polling is pretty much on the money. In 2008, New Hampshire and South Dakota were notable gaffes for the polling profession. Count the 2012 South Carolina polls as another bad example.

“The Florida Dilemma” – Okay, Gingrich won in media-cheap South Carolina, but he had better hope the donors come calling, and fast. Florida is a huge, diverse state with the very expensive media markets of Miami, Tampa and Orlando. Even medium TV markets, such as West Palm Beach, Jacksonville and Pensacola, are pricey! Oh, and then there are Fort Myers, Panama City, Gainesville and Sarasota. The state has ten TV markets, not to mention radio, newspapers and Internet ads. It takes a ton of money to run in Florida!

“Bring Back Larry King!” – Is there a worse analyst of U.S. Presidential politics on TV these days than CNN’s Piers Morgan? The Brit, who replaced Larry King, continues to embarrass himself (and his network). Last night, Morgan referred to Gingrich as the frontrunner now that he has won South Carolina (Newt is not); and then Morgan said John King “attacked” Newt Gingrich. A tough, pointed question? Yes; but an attack? No! Morgan looked sheepish when Wolf Blitzer corrected him on air. Morgan was clueless in Iowa, too. It’s sad, because CNN’s political team is the best, with the exception of this very weak link.

“I Was Right; but I Was Wrong!” -- A few months ago, I predicted a Republican free-for-all, with three different winners in the first three states. I had Bachmann winning Iowa; Romney winning New Hampshire; and Perry winning South Carolina. So, in theory, I was on the right path, but with a couple of the names mixed up! From the very start, this promised to be a wild GOP ride, and it hasn’t disappointed.

“Irony?” – It has been an anti-Washington, anti-insider year; but could the Republicans be poised to nominate the ultimate Washington insider, Newt Gingrich? The contradictions of politics always amaze me! Still, this race still has a long way to go, with a few more surprises I am sure!

As always, if you have questions, comments, or disagreements, just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com

(Interstate 90, New York) -- Greetings from the road! January is only 15 days old, and I literally don’t know what day it is, or where I am. I’ve been to Iowa, New Hampshire, New York and all kinds of places in between, so it’s hard to keep track. Anyway, I’ve seen a lot of politics the last few weeks, so here are some thoughts:

“A Winning Strategy?” – To the surprise of many, Mitt Romney continues to lead the polls in South Carolina. This is puzzling because he is a moderate running in a very conservative state, not to mention the fact that there are three true conservatives on the ballot. Why is Romney leading? A poll in South Carolina showed that of those backing Romney, 59 percent felt he was the only Republican who could beat President Obama, even though there were other GOP candidates more aligned with their views.

“A Conservative Strategy” – The question must be asked: Can a conservative still win the nomination after Romney’s wins in Iowa and New Hampshire? The answer is "Yes." Here’s the latest CNN national poll: Romney, 34 percent; Newt Gingrich, 18 percent; Ron Paul and Rick Santorum at 15 percent each; and Rick Perry at 9 percent. If, in theory, the conservatives Gingrich, Perry and Santorum pooled their votes and backed one candidate, they’d have 42 percent of the vote. So, if Perry and Santorum got out of the race and endorsed Gingrich, for example, the conservative wing might have a chance.

“A Conservative Strategy, Part 2” – Assuming the above strategy occurred, could Republicans still win in November? It’s dicey! Fist of all, Romney is the only GOP candidate polling ahead of Obama right now. Second, a lot of independent voters - who make up 38 percent of the national electorate, according to Gallup - are inclined to vote for Romney, but not so predisposed to cast votes for a more conservative Republican. So, yes, a conservative could still win the nomination; but the general election is not so certain.

“Romney Looks the Part” – In all the years I have been covering politics, there have been these nebulous phrases, “He looks Presidential” or “That doesn’t sound very Presidential.” The concept of “Presidential” has no real definition; you just know it when you see it. It’s a kind of vibe you get from the candidate or office holder. I watched Mitt and Ann Romney with their children and grandchildren at the victory rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, Tuesday night (see photo above). All I can say is that he looked and sounded “Presidential” - again, whatever that means. He has a real shot, and you can picture him in the White House. There have been eleven presidents in my lifetime, and the only two that never really gave me the "Presidential vibe" were Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush.

“The Venture Vulture” – They must be singing Newt Gingrich’s and Rick Perry’s praises at the White House. The more those two attack Romney for his years running Bain Capital, the more likely you are to see those same sound bites in Obama reelection ads this fall should Romney be the Republican nominee. The Democrats have been hoping all along that Republicans would form the “circular firing squad” and shoot each other down. The White House may be getting its wish.

“Breaking News?” – The weirdest moment of the New Hampshire campaign was at the Nashua Rotary Club on Monday, when Newt Gingrich announced that he had a major news flash. Gingrich told the crowd that he had just received a phone call from Todd Palin and that he, Palin, had endorsed Newt for President. Now, it would have been generally newsworthy if the endorsement had come from former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, but from her spouse? Anyway, when Newt made this breathtaking announcement, there was not a peep from the Rotarians nor from the press pool. It was surreal.

“New Hampshire State of Mind!” – I’m just curious. What do you think is the prettiest, most charming state in the nation? At the risk of offending many friends and family members around the nation, my vote goes to New Hampshire. Every time I am there, I feel as if I’m driving through a picture postcard. I just love the place! By the way, I always give dining tips from my campaign travels, so here are two: Sammy J’s for breakfast in Salem, New Hampshire, and The Common Man, in Concord, for lunch or dinner. Actually, The Common Man has several outlets in the Granite State, but the one in Concord is king!

As always, your questions, comments and disagreements are welcome. Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.