(Providence, Rhode Island)

This Massachusetts Senate race is one of the closest in recent memory, and no one predicted it would be. So, what happened?

Well, the poor economy is still the number one issue, and that always hurts the party in power. This is not an anti-Democrat sentiment, but more anti-incumbent.

Second, health care reform--whether justifiably or not-- frightens people. Why? Because it's such a personal issue. It's not like Congress spending billions to pave highways. That's not an issue that touches us personally (although it does affect us). Anyway, we as voters tend to get more involved when the issue is more personal. It hits home.

Everyone has health issues, which are among the things that concern us most. Yes, the current health care system has all kinds of problems. But people fear changes to something that is so close to them, and they fear the unknown. That is more human nature than anti-health care reform sentiment.

Finally, Republicans (and most independents) have seized on the sense of entitlement many Democrats feel for this seat, long occupied by Sen. Ted Kennedy. But Republican Scott Brown struck a nerve in a debate eight days ago when he told moderator David Gergen, "With all due respect, this is not the Kennedys' seat. It's not the Democrats' seat. It's the people's seat."

The polls spiked for Brown after that comment, and he surged into the lead in several polls. In one, he was favored by 71 percent of independents. (If you don't think the line was a critical moment in this race, look at the TV ad above featuring Vicki Kennedy--Ted's widow--released over the weekend in an attempt at damage control. Sound familiar?) This may be "the" turning point in the campaign if Scott Brown wins! Here is my "live" report and analysis from the "First at Four" newscast today on ABC6: http://www.abc6.com/news/82086557.html

We will update this story all day and night on ABC6. Please check in often, as well, at www.abc6.com.