(San Jose, California)
I am heading to Los Angeles to do pre- and post-election analysis for the Tribune TV stations in L.A., Sacramento and San Diego. So KLTA-TV 5 will be my home for the next few days.
Here is my preview of what to watch for on Election Day and the morning after.
Keep your eye on three key states as polls close on the East Coast. If Obama wins only ONE of Virginia, North Carolina or Florida, it will be almost impossible for McCain to win unless he scores an upset in Pennsylvania.
Overconfidence and pessimism. Forget the polls, folks! The only one that really counts is the one taken Tuesday. If some Obama supporters are overconfident, they may just stay home. If some McCain supporters truly believe he has already lost, they might stay home, too. Both of these scenarios are even more worrisome in close states experiencing bad weather, such as North Carolina.
If McCain makes it to the Mississippi River and he's still in the running, then watch these three states: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. A close race in the East may motivate more McCain supporters in the West to come out and vote. These three states could decide a close race.
Keep your eyes on the U.S. Senate. Right now it’s 49 to 49, with two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats have an outside shot at winning 12 seats on Tuesday, although I predict they will win only 8. But, if they get to the magic number of 60, they can stop any filibuster (and opposition) on many bills. This could be the BIG story on election night!
If the Dems get a filibuster-proof Senate, watch for the name Hillary Clinton to surface as a potential Supreme Court nominee. She’ll get through if Republicans can’t block her confirmation vote. Trust me. She extracted some sort of promise from Barack Obama in exchange for her support. Her chances of becoming President may have dimmed, but she could serve on the high court for 25 to 30 years. I’m not crazy to suggest this!
The oddity of the day is that Democrats could also pick up 15 to 20 seats in the House. This is weird because Congress has only a 10 percent public approval rating, even lower than the 25 percent approval for President Bush. One of these days I’ll blog about why Presidents get blamed, while Congress gets reelected!
I’m off to LA, but will be blogging all through Election Day and the day after. Keep coming back to www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.