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Mark Curtis Election Day Predictions


(Los Angeles)

Happy Election Day! It’s finally here! Every four years I make my predictions, so here goes.

Barack Obama will win the Presidency, but by a much closer margin than polls indicate. I see it as Obama 52 percent to John McCain 46 percent, with 2 percent for third-party candidates.

In the Electoral College I predict Obama 285 to McCain 253. There will be some surprises. I see McCain winning Florida and North Carolina, even though he has been behind in the polls. I predict McCain will be an upset winner in Pennsylvania, and will hang on to win Nevada.

On the Democrats' side, Obama will be the first Democrat to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Obama will ride the coattails of Senate Candidate Mark Warner who has an enormous lead over his GOP opponent. Obama will also win the crucial, usually Republican state of Ohio. And he will take traditionally Republican states of New Mexico and Colorado.

I also predict that - based on early voting in which an estimated 30 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots before today - this will be the largest voter turnout in U.S. history.

Beyond the White House, the big story tonight will be the U.S. Senate. Democrats need 60 seats to have a filibuster-proof majority. Right now it’s 49 to 49 with 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. I predict the Democrats will win 8 seats, leaving them just one vote shy of the 60 they need to be filibuster proof. Further complicating things for Democrats is that Independent Senator Joe Lieberman may decide to caucus with the GOP.

I predict the Democrats will win Senate seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, Virginia, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon.

As for the Presidency, I predict the following states for each candidate:

Obama: CA, NY, IL, ME, NH, VT, CT, DE, MA, MD, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH, OR, WA, CO, NM, DC, HA, VA, RI, and NJ.

McCain: AZ, FL, NC, AL, GA, MS, LA, AR, TN, KY, WV, PA, MO, IN, Sd. ND, NE, MT, WY, ID, NV, AK, UT, KS, OK, SC and TX.

I will be blogging all day and night. I am broadcasting from KTLA-TV5 in Los Angeles.
Check back at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

The White House Aside, Five Senate Races to Watch

Senate Logo.jpg

(Los Angeles)

I am on the ground in LA, right on Hollywood Boulevard and the Walk of Fame. It’s 10:30 p.m., Pacific Time, and some of the candidates are speaking live on TV from the East Coast, where it’s 1:30 in the morning.

“Sometimes, when I’m down, you build me up,” said Barack Obama from an early morning Election Day rally in Virginia. John McCain is to speak shortly in Phoenix.
It’s like a game of “last man standing.”

The White House race is high drama, but keep your eye on the U.S. Senate. A net gain of 10 seats by the Democrats might make it filibuster-proof, meaning they can pass just about anything, including Supreme Court nominees without much opposition.

North Carolina: GOP legend Elizabeth Dole, versus upstart Democrat Kay Hagan, a State Senator. There’s been a huge fight over an atheist group supporting Hagan. Attack ads have backfired, and Dole is behind.

Minnesota: Comedian Al Franken, a Democrat, made his fortune as a writer on “Saturday Night Live.” He’s leading GOP incumbent Norm Coleman in the polls, with a strong third-party challenger in the mix.

Virginia: Wow! Former Governor Mark Warner is leading former Governor Jim Gilmore by 31 points in the latest poll. Oddly enough, Barack Obama could ride Warner’s coattails to victory in Virginia. I predict Virginia is the key state this year, as Florida was in 200 and Ohio, in 2004.

Colorado and New Mexico: The Udall cousins, Tom and Mark, look to move up from the House to the Senate. They are second-generation heirs to former Interior Secretary Stuart Udall and Congressman Mo Udall. The Udalls are quickly becoming the West’s version of the Bush-Kennedy dynasties.

Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith is a cousin of the Udalls! He’s seeking a third term against a tough Democratic challenger. So Smith is running by attacking his fellow Republicans' agenda in DC. Strange, but in liberal-leaning Oregon, it may work!

I’ll be blogging all day Tuesday. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com; and if you are in Southern California, I'll be "live" on KTLA-TV5 all morning long on Tuesday and Wednesday!

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