Happy Election Day! It’s finally here! Every four years I make my predictions, so here goes.
Barack Obama will win the Presidency, but by a much closer margin than polls indicate. I see it as Obama 52 percent to John McCain 46 percent, with 2 percent for third-party candidates.
In the Electoral College I predict Obama 285 to McCain 253. There will be some surprises. I see McCain winning Florida and North Carolina, even though he has been behind in the polls. I predict McCain will be an upset winner in Pennsylvania, and will hang on to win Nevada.
On the Democrats' side, Obama will be the first Democrat to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Obama will ride the coattails of Senate Candidate Mark Warner who has an enormous lead over his GOP opponent. Obama will also win the crucial, usually Republican state of Ohio. And he will take traditionally Republican states of New Mexico and Colorado.
I also predict that - based on early voting in which an estimated 30 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots before today - this will be the largest voter turnout in U.S. history.
Beyond the White House, the big story tonight will be the U.S. Senate. Democrats need 60 seats to have a filibuster-proof majority. Right now it’s 49 to 49 with 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. I predict the Democrats will win 8 seats, leaving them just one vote shy of the 60 they need to be filibuster proof. Further complicating things for Democrats is that Independent Senator Joe Lieberman may decide to caucus with the GOP.
I predict the Democrats will win Senate seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, Virginia, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon.
As for the Presidency, I predict the following states for each candidate:
Obama: CA, NY, IL, ME, NH, VT, CT, DE, MA, MD, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH, OR, WA, CO, NM, DC, HA, VA, RI, and NJ.
McCain: AZ, FL, NC, AL, GA, MS, LA, AR, TN, KY, WV, PA, MO, IN, Sd. ND, NE, MT, WY, ID, NV, AK, UT, KS, OK, SC and TX.
I will be blogging all day and night. I am broadcasting from KTLA-TV5 in Los Angeles.
Check back at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.